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Why 2024 Could Reshape the Global Order?
Global elections and their impact on the future
Gen Kimura
June 20, 2024
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The Year That Will Change the World: 2024
2024 is shaping up to be a year like no other. Nearly 50% of the world's population is heading to the polls to elect new leaders.
64 countries, including major players like the US, the UK, India, Russia, and possibly Ukraine, all are holding elections simultaneously.
This shows that the global political landscape is set for significant shifts.
Now let’s look at some of the highest-stakes elections in 2024:
United States Presidential Election
The 2024 US presidential election is set to be one of the most contentious in history. It's happening amid growing political differences. The main issues include immigration, race, gender, and the changing American family.
Despite being convicted on 34 felony charges and having legal troubles, Donald Trump is favored to win against Joe Biden in several forecasts. Trump’s campaign shows his continuing influence and popularity among a significant portion of voters.
On the other hand, concerns over President Joe Biden's age and declining approval rating are hurting his campaign.
Taiwan’s Elections Amid Tense China Situation
No country faces higher stakes in 2024 than Taiwan. Taiwan held presidential elections in January amid growing interference from China.
The incumbent Vice President William Lai of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) defeated the Beijing-friendly Kuomintang (KMT) party’s candidate.
The elections and victory of William Lai came at a time when China increased its military pressure on Taiwan. China has also become more vocal about its plans to invade Taiwan. They call it the 'reunification of the motherland'.
“I also want to call on China to cease their political and military intimidation against Taiwan, share with Taiwan the global responsibility of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait as well as the greater region, and ensure the world is free from the fear of war”
Europe’s Political Shakeup
Western Europe is poised for a political shakeup. In the UK, the Conservative Party has held power for 14 years. They now face potential defeat in the July election. This is mainly due to economic woes and political scandals.
The far-right parties made huge gains in the European Union (EU) parliamentary elections. Their election win is fueled by public discontent over immigration and economic issues.
The rise of these parties could lead to a more fragmented EU, affecting policies on everything from trade to the war in Ukraine.
World’s Largest Democratic Election in India
India just concluded the world’s largest democratic exercise with its 2024 General Election. The six weeks-long election process had over 950 million eligible voters.
The election result led to the return of the incumbent Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. It is his third term but with a slim majority.
Modi’s Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) won an outright majority in both the 2014 and 2019 General Elections. But in 2024, after a decade in power, Modi lost his outright majority. He had to form a coalition government with his allies.
Russia and Ukraine’s Future
Vladimir Putin got a record win in Russia’s March election amid significant international scrutiny.
Despite allegations of electoral manipulation and suppression of opposition figures, Putin remains a dominant force in Russian politics.
When asked by an American reporter about whether his re-election was democratic, Putin criticized the election process of the United States instead.
“The whole world is laughing at what is happening (in the United States), this is just a disaster, not a democracy…Is it democratic to use administrative resources to attack one of the candidates for the presidency of the United States, using the judiciary among other things?”
Ukraine's political future is uncertain with the country grappling with an ongoing war with Russia. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s term in office would have expired by now in peacetime. But the martial law restricts Ukraine from holding an election due to the ongoing war.
Deciding to hold or delay the elections will greatly impact the ongoing security situation in the country and its relations with Russia.
Whether Ukraine can hold an election will also determine its relations with Western allies. The U.S. and other Western allies are already debating withholding aid to Ukraine because elections have not happened.
Our Thoughts
2024 is not just another election year. It's a turning point that could reshape the world as we know it. With so many critical elections happening simultaneously, the stakes have never been higher.
Wars are currently going on in the Middle East, Ukraine, and Africa. The elections will not only decide who leads individual countries. They will also shape global policies on critical issues that affect everyone.
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