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Electoral College: The Math That Will Decide The Election
Inside the complex system that decides the Election
Kartik Vyas
October 24, 2024
sponsored by
How The Next President of The United States is Decided
As the November 2024 Presidential Election approaches, the role of the Electoral College once again takes center stage.
Often misunderstood, the Electoral College is a critical component of the U.S. election system.
This week, we’ll investigate its origins, impact on elections, and what to expect in the upcoming election.
The Electoral College isn't just a system — it's a complex web of constitutional compromises that continues to shape American democracy.
While voters believe they directly elect the president, the reality is more nuanced:
Voters cast their ballots for electors pledged to specific candidates rather than voting directly for the president.
Each state determines how its electors are chosen. Most states use a winner-take-all approach.
Each state gets electoral votes equal to its total number of Congressional representatives (Senators + Representatives).
A candidate must secure 270 out of 538 electoral votes to win the presidency
But the popular vote winner doesn't automatically become president.
The Math That Really Matters
The system was created to balance power between populous and less populous states in presidential elections.
But the allocation of electoral votes reveals surprising imbalances in voter influence:
In 48 states, the candidate who wins the popular vote in the state receives all its electoral votes.
Five presidents, including George W. Bush (2000) and Donald Trump (2016), have won the presidency without winning the popular vote.
Maine and Nebraska allocate electors based on congressional district outcomes, allowing candidates to engage with diverse voter bases.
States with smaller populations have more electoral votes per capita, giving them disproportionate influence.
This allocation method directly impacts campaign strategies, as candidates focus on states where small margins can make a big difference in electoral outcomes.
The Untold Story of Electoral Reform
Despite over 700 proposals to reform or abolish, the Electoral College’s structure has remained largely unchanged since the passage of the Twelfth Amendment in 1804.
Proposals like the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) aim to reform the system without requiring a constitutional amendment.
But any major changes to the Electoral College remain politically and constitutionally difficult.
So, Who Really Picks the President?
The Electoral College profoundly affects U.S. elections byu influencing how votes are allocated and how candidates campaign:
Candidates concentrate efforts on swing states where competitive dynamics can significantly influence election outcomes.
In most states, even a slim majority of the popular vote secures all the state’s electoral votes.
The system can either encourage or discourage voter turnout, especially in states where outcomes seem predetermined.
Campaign strategies prioritize electoral math over national appeal.
Swing States and their Electoral Votes (in light blue)
These hidden aspects of the system continue to shape the election in ways that are not always known to voters.
2024: Electoral College in Action
The 2024 election is expected to once again highlight the power of the Electoral College, with a particular focus on key swing states and voter turnout:
Swing States like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia will play a crucial role in determining the election outcomes due to their competitive nature.
It is possible for a candidate could win through narrow victories in key swing states while losing the popular vote, as seen in previous elections.
Low turnout in urban areas or high turnout in rural areas could sway results in battleground states.
If neither candidate wins 270 electoral votes, the election could be decided by the House of Representatives.
These dynamics will prove the key in deciding who wins the presidency next month.
Our Thoughts
As the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election nears, the importance of understanding the Electoral College becomes even more crucial.
This institution, while designed to balance state and federal interests, continues to shape American politics in unexpected ways.
Whether reform will come remains to be seen, but the role of the Electoral College in determining the next president is undeniable.
Do you think America should do away with its current Electoral College system? |
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