Storms of Change: Hurricane Helene and Milton

Two powerful hurricanes, Helene and Milton, are disrupting the southeastern U.S. just weeks before the Presidential Election.

Hurricane Helene

• Hurricane Helene made landfall on September 26, 2024, as a Category 4 storm, causing severe damage across Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina.

• Its heavy rains, storm surges, and winds reaching over 140 mph have led to at least 230 fatalities and widespread infrastructural damage.

Hurricane Milton

• Hurricane Milton, currently a Category 5 storm with sustained winds of 120 mph, hit Florida's Western Coast on October 9, 2024.

• It has catastrophic potential, especially in the areas already impacted by Helene.

With these hurricanes arriving so close to Election Day, their immediate effects and the candidates' responses could change the political landscape in these key battleground states.

The Path of Destruction: Hurricanes in Swing States

Hurricanes Helene and Milton are having the greatest effect in states that will play a pivotal role in the 2024 Presidential Election.

The hurricanes are already causing significant changes to voting processes in the affected swing states:

North Carolina

• North Carolina, a swing state with 16 electoral votes, has been hit hard by Hurricane Helene, particularly in the western regions.

• Voting processes are being disrupted by road closures, power outages, and polling site damage.

• Emergency measures were approved for counties severely affected by Helene. Voters can drop off completed absentee ballots at any county election office or polling location within their county.

• Early voting sites are also being modified to ensure accessibility despite the damage caused by Hurricane Helene. But this could cause confusion and lower turnout.

Georgia

• Georgia is another swing state with 16 electoral votes that has been affected by Hurricane Helene.

• Disruptions to transportation routes, lack of internet access, and power outages may affect voting processes in early voting locations in areas worst hit by Helene in Georgia.

• A lawsuit before a federal judge is asking to reopen voter registration as Helene disruptions restricted several thousands of voters from registering in Georgia.

Voter Demographics

• The demographic most affected includes low-income voters and families who often have fewer resources to recover from disasters.

Election officials are confident about ensuring that all mail-in ballots reach voters and are returned in time. But delays could disenfranchise thousands and affect turnout among key demographics in these battleground states.

Political Colors to Hurricanes

Both presidential candidates are leveraging the hurricanes to influence public opinion.

What’s Harris Doing?

Vice President Kamala Harris has been actively involved in the federal government’s disaster relief efforts:

• Harris has overseen the mobilization of 7,000 federal personnel and the allocation of $137 million in federal assistance to impacted states.

• She has made public statements urging local leaders, both Republican and Democratic, to work together towards swift recovery efforts.

What’s Trump Doing?

Former President Donald Trump has taken a different tack, focusing on criticizing the federal response to the hurricanes:

• Trump slammed the Biden-Harris administration for offering only $750 to hurricane-affected people while giving away billions to other countries.

• Trump also visited disaster-affected areas and facilitated relief supplies, including a GoFundMe campaign which raised over $4 million.

Historical Precedents: When Disaster Meets Elections

Natural disasters have played a significant role in past U.S. elections, often influencing voter turnout, behavior, and election results.

Hurricane Sandy (2012)

• Striking just days before the Presidential Election, Hurricane Sandy allowed then-President Barack Obama to demonstrate his leadership in disaster response.

• One exit poll found that Obama’s hurricane response was the most important factor for 15% of voters.

Hurricane Katrina (2005)

• Although not during a Presidential Election year, the then G.W. Bush government’s mishandling of the Katrina disaster response led to huge reputation damage.

• This eventually reshaped public opinion about disaster preparedness and election impact in America.

These examples show that how leaders manage disaster relief can heavily influence elections, especially when those disasters occur close to Election Day.