Will it Trigger the Next Pandemic?

• On August 14, 2024, the WHO declared Mpox a global public health emergency for the second time in two years.

• The WHO decision came after a major outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

• The outbreak has spread to neighboring countries. This has raised alarms about a new, more transmissible variant.

What’s this Virus all about:

Mpox: A Brief Overview

• Mpox, formerly monkeypox, is an infectious disease. It was first identified in 1958 among monkeys.

• It is caused by the monkeypox virus (MPXV).

• Its symptoms include fever, muscle aches, swollen lymph nodes, and a distinctive rash.

• The virus can spread through direct contact with an infected person, especially via bodily fluids, skin lesions, and respiratory droplets.

Why the Name Change?

• The WHO changed the term "monkeypox" to "mpox” in November 2022.

• As per WHO, the original name raised concerns about racism and stigmatizing language online.

• The decision was taken after talks with global experts and feedback from those concerned about the name's implications.

The New Variant

There are concerns about clade Ib's emergence. It is more contagious and may cause worse outcomes.

• Clade Ib shows an enhanced ability for human-to-human transmission, including silent (asymptotic) spread.

• Clade I variants cause more severe disease and higher mortality rates than other variants of Mpox.

• Alarmingly, children under 5 constitute over 39% of all reported cases and 62% of all deaths in the DRC outbreak in 2024.

Regions Most Affected

The epicenter of the outbreak remains in Africa:

• DRC: Accounts for 96% of confirmed cases, with 15,000 cases and over 500 deaths since early 2024.

• Other African countries: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda report significant numbers of cases.

Outside Africa, Sweden reported the first case of the new Mpox variant.

Why Africa?

Several factors contribute to the prevalence of Mpox in Africa:

• Mpox has been endemic to Central Africa for years. It has established a reservoir in local wildlife.

• Limited infrastructure and insufficient public health resources hinder effective disease monitoring and response.

• The nearby affected countries and ecology raise the risk of animal-to-human spread.

United States: Preparing for the Inevitable?

As of August 2024, no cases of the new clade Ib variant have been reported in the U.S:

• The CDC has issued alerts to healthcare providers to monitor for potential cases.

• The U.S. is donating Mpox 50,000 vaccine doses to the DRC to assist in its response.

• Emergency use authorization have been issued for antiviral treatments.

Is it a "Gay Disease"?

Recent Mpox outbreaks have hit the gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) demographic:

• Most cases that were reported in the 2022/2023 global Mpox outbreak were among the GBMSM demographic.

• A recent CDC study shows simulated outbreaks of the new variant of Mpox were smaller among the GBMSM demographic than the 2022/2023 Mpox outbreak.

• The virus can also spread through close physical contact, regardless of sexual orientation.

Will History Repeat Itself?

Despite concerns, experts believe Mpox won't cause a pandemic or COVID-like lockdowns. Here's why:

• Mpox needs close physical contact for efficient spread, unlike COVID-19, which could easily spread through the air.

• Many older adults may have immunity from smallpox vaccination. It provides cross-protection against Mpox.

• The COVID-19 pandemic has better prepared public health authorities to respond to new threats.

However, The new variant remains a serious public health concern, especially in areas with limited healthcare resources.

Our Thoughts

• Not long after the COVID-19 pandemic, the WHO has raised warning bells for another global public health emergency.

• While it is too early to predict with certainty whether it will trigger another pandemic, the global community should not be complacent.

News Worthy:

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